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Sunday, March 13, 2005
Thursday, March 10, 2005
Who Influences Your Thinking?
Topic: Management Improvement
Comments on Who Influences Your Thinking? - Survey results -
> 1. Are people getting most of their information
> from other sources?
That would be my guess.
Similar to the phenomenon of "the long tail" which is an interesting topic in its own right. We tend to focus on the popular few (books, musicians, movies, authors, computer programs...) but often the sum of the less popular many is more significant. See:
> 2. Do we need other ways to provide important information to people?
Yes.
> 3. Perhaps people already have all the information they need and these subjects are saturated?
I don't think think so, which is why I think the answer to question 2 is yes. People need to use the ideas of deBono, Senge, Hamel, Rodin (who is, I would think one of the lest well known but is the author of a great book: Free, Perfect and Now)... It is not that their ideas would not help, they would.
From the survey the lowest perctage response for "I have not read that author" was 38% - for Senge (Rodin was the highest at 94%). The audience for the universe invited to respond was pretty much limited to the friends of the InnovationNetwork.
The book model of transferring information is great. But still, it is not close to sufficient. Many other ways of learning as well as support for applying new ideas are available, but they are also lacking. At least for someone who believes, like I do, that we are failing to apply all sorts of knowledge that would benefit from applying. Some of those ways are: hearing someone like Senge speak, reading blogs, working with others on how to apply some of the ideas in your organization, reading magazines, applying ideas and learning from that application, talking to colleagues that are trying similar things in other organizations, videos, listening to recorded lectures, interactive computer models, exercises (learning experiences), argument, coaching from a consultant...
My guess is a big part of the reason so many people in the survey had not read the work of Senge, Hamel, deBono etc. is time presure. I don't see the lack of time to read disapearing as a problem. I think people also find it difficult to see how to apply the ideas they read to the situations they encounter. That can be improved by combining the other methods of learning how to apply the ideas.
It could also be improved by our education system focusing on how to apply ideas rather than how to restate the ideas for a test but that is a very long term process. Two great minds that are helping improve education are: Alfie Kohn and David Langford (don't judge their ideas by the look of their web sites - these "books" are much better than their "covers" might lead you to presume).
I don't have any great new idea on "other ways." My belief is we do need to do a much better job of using the knowledge that is available. What we are doing is not sufficient. And since I don't have some great new idea all I am left with is we should do a better job of the the things that do work to some extent. Maybe by doing that people will find great new ways that will provide an easier path for those that follow.
Who influences my thinking on Management Improvement:
Comments on Who Influences Your Thinking? - Survey results -
> 1. Are people getting most of their information
> from other sources?
That would be my guess.
Similar to the phenomenon of "the long tail" which is an interesting topic in its own right. We tend to focus on the popular few (books, musicians, movies, authors, computer programs...) but often the sum of the less popular many is more significant. See:
- The Long Tail, by Chris Anderson, Wired, Oct 2004 "The average Barnes & Noble carries 130,000 titles. Yet more than half of Amazon's book sales come from outside its top 130,000 titles. Consider the implication: If the Amazon statistics are any guide, the market for books that are not even sold in the average bookstore is larger than the market for those that are"
- Continued discussion of the Amazon figures in a Chiris Anderson's blog. "I've now spoken to Jeff Bezos (and others) about this. He doesn't have a hard figure for the percentage of sales of products not available offline, but reckons that it's closer to 25-30%."
- The long tail - a secret sauce for companies like Amazon.com, Netflix and Apple Computer, Motley Fool, NPR Audio Recording
> 2. Do we need other ways to provide important information to people?
Yes.
> 3. Perhaps people already have all the information they need and these subjects are saturated?
I don't think think so, which is why I think the answer to question 2 is yes. People need to use the ideas of deBono, Senge, Hamel, Rodin (who is, I would think one of the lest well known but is the author of a great book: Free, Perfect and Now)... It is not that their ideas would not help, they would.
From the survey the lowest perctage response for "I have not read that author" was 38% - for Senge (Rodin was the highest at 94%). The audience for the universe invited to respond was pretty much limited to the friends of the InnovationNetwork.
The book model of transferring information is great. But still, it is not close to sufficient. Many other ways of learning as well as support for applying new ideas are available, but they are also lacking. At least for someone who believes, like I do, that we are failing to apply all sorts of knowledge that would benefit from applying. Some of those ways are: hearing someone like Senge speak, reading blogs, working with others on how to apply some of the ideas in your organization, reading magazines, applying ideas and learning from that application, talking to colleagues that are trying similar things in other organizations, videos, listening to recorded lectures, interactive computer models, exercises (learning experiences), argument, coaching from a consultant...
My guess is a big part of the reason so many people in the survey had not read the work of Senge, Hamel, deBono etc. is time presure. I don't see the lack of time to read disapearing as a problem. I think people also find it difficult to see how to apply the ideas they read to the situations they encounter. That can be improved by combining the other methods of learning how to apply the ideas.
It could also be improved by our education system focusing on how to apply ideas rather than how to restate the ideas for a test but that is a very long term process. Two great minds that are helping improve education are: Alfie Kohn and David Langford (don't judge their ideas by the look of their web sites - these "books" are much better than their "covers" might lead you to presume).
I don't have any great new idea on "other ways." My belief is we do need to do a much better job of using the knowledge that is available. What we are doing is not sufficient. And since I don't have some great new idea all I am left with is we should do a better job of the the things that do work to some extent. Maybe by doing that people will find great new ways that will provide an easier path for those that follow.
Who influences my thinking on Management Improvement:
- Bill Hunter
- Peter Scholtes
- W. Edwards Deming
- Russel Ackoff
- George Box
- Brian Joiner
- Kent Lessandrini
- J. Gerald Suarez
- Peter Senge
- Joel Barker
- Gary Hamel
- Jeff Bezos
- Douglas McGregor
- James P. Womack
- Noriaki Kano
Tuesday, March 08, 2005
Statistics for Experimenters - Second Edition
Topic: Statistics, Six Sigma, Management Improvement
Google Scholar citations for the first edition of Statistics for Experimenters.
Citations in Cite Seer to the first edition.
The first edition includes the text of Experiment by Cole Porter. In 1978 finding a recording of this song was next to impossible. Now Experiment can be heard on the De-Lovely soundtrack.
Text from the publisher on the 2nd Edition:
Rewritten and updated, this new edition of Statistics for Experimenters adopts the same approaches as the landmark First Edition by teaching with examples, readily understood graphics, and the appropriate use of computers. Catalyzing innovation, problem solving, and discovery, the Second Edition provides experimenters with the scientific and statistical tools needed to maximize the knowledge gained from research data, illustrating how these tools may best be utilized during all stages of the investigative process. The authors’ practical approach starts with a problem that needs to be solved and then examines the appropriate statistical methods of design and analysis.
 | The classic Statistics for Experimenters has been updated by George Box and Stu Hunter, two of the three original authors. Bill Hunter, who was my father, and the other author, died in 1986. Order online: Statistics for Experimenters: Design, Innovation, and Discovery , 2nd Edition by George E. P. Box, J. Stuart Hunter, William G. Hunter. I happen to agree with those who call this book a classic, however, I am obviously biased. |
Google Scholar citations for the first edition of Statistics for Experimenters.
Citations in Cite Seer to the first edition.
The first edition includes the text of Experiment by Cole Porter. In 1978 finding a recording of this song was next to impossible. Now Experiment can be heard on the De-Lovely soundtrack.
Text from the publisher on the 2nd Edition:
Rewritten and updated, this new edition of Statistics for Experimenters adopts the same approaches as the landmark First Edition by teaching with examples, readily understood graphics, and the appropriate use of computers. Catalyzing innovation, problem solving, and discovery, the Second Edition provides experimenters with the scientific and statistical tools needed to maximize the knowledge gained from research data, illustrating how these tools may best be utilized during all stages of the investigative process. The authors’ practical approach starts with a problem that needs to be solved and then examines the appropriate statistical methods of design and analysis.
Providing even greater accessibility for its users, the Second Edition is thoroughly revised and updated to reflect the changes in techniques and technologies since the publication of the classic First Edition.
Among the new topics included are:
- Graphical Analysis of Variance
- Computer Analysis of Complex Designs
- Simplification by transformation
- Hands-on experimentation using Response Service Methods
- Further development of robust product and process design using split plot arrangements and minimization of error transmission
- Introduction to Process Control, Forecasting and Time Series
- Illustrations demonstrating how multi-response problems can be solved using the concepts of active and inert factor spaces and canonical spaces
- Bayesian approaches to model selection and sequential experimentation
An appendix featuring Quaquaversal quotes from a variety of sources including noted statisticians and scientists to famous philosophers is provided to illustrate key concepts and enliven the learning process.
All the computations in the Second Edition can be done utilizing the statistical language R. Functions for displaying ANOVA and lamba plots, Bayesian screening, and model building are all included and R packages are available online. All theses topics can also be applied utilizing easy-to-use commercial software packages.
Complete with applications covering the physical, engineering, biological, and social sciences, Statistics for Experimenters is designed for individuals who must use statistical approaches to conduct an experiment, but do not necessarily have formal training in statistics. Experimenters need only a basic understanding of mathematics to master all the statistical methods presented. This text is an essential reference for all researchers and is a highly recommended course book for undergraduate and graduate students.
post by John HunterTuesday, March 01, 2005
Curious Cat Articles and Links
We have created a new blog, Curious Cat Articles and Links, where we will post links to articles and web sites we find interesting.
Saturday, February 26, 2005
Control Charts in Health Care
Topic: Management Improvement
This post is an edtied version of a message I sent to the Deming Electronic Network.
I find the “control charts in health care” thread quite interesting.
From Mike Woolbert's post
> I have read many comments about the 8 minute ambulance trip.
> This doesn't seem to be a system measure, but a result measure.
It seems to me the 8 minute (90% of the time) measure is an attempt at a process measure (in a sense, you can see it as a result measure, but it is also a measure that will have an impact on overall results and as such can be used a process indicator). For it to be a process measure rather than than a process target however, it should actual be a measure of what has happened not a statement that we want to have 90% arrive within 8 minutes.
Jonathan Siegel's comments on this topic were excellent.
The control chart was developed to aid in process improvement. A control chart helps monitor the process (to aid in putting in place counter-measures, when needed, and for identification of special causes). The control chart can be used to see if the process is in control and what the expected results from the system are.
The 90% in 8 minutes measure seems to me to be the desire or goal (as a proxy for a “customer specification” or “voice of the customer”). The control chart will show what the process is capable of: “voice of the process.” There could be another voice of the process that excludes the 10% longest times, but I don't think that would be a control chart, it would be something else. I think that is fine, as long as what it was, and is not, is understood. Maybe there is some way to have the 90% measures as a control chart that I just don't think of it right now.
Learning that the process is in control (using a control chart) can help guide the improvement efforts. When the process is in control certain process improvement strategies are likely to be effective. And PDSA pilots can be analyzed based on the knowledge that the system is in control. I think Brian Joiner's 4th Generation Management has very good information on this topic, see pages 140-153. Essentially, focus on improving the process as a whole, using PDSA and experimentation, rather than focusing on special causes. In addition, those pages talk about stratifying and disagragating the data to help focus improvement efforts.
If the system is not in control different improvement strategies are most likely to be effective. Again 4th Generation Management has good ideas pages 138-140. Essentially, in this case the type of management most often seen, find causes and react is often the best strategy. The long term strategy should be to bring the process into control and then improve the process.
Thinking about the ambulance response process I have the following thoughts.
It seems likely the 8 minute figure is based on experience such that the system outcomes (the health of the patient) will decline as times increase, which makes sense to me. And possibly the 8 minute figure is based on some studies that make that a sensible figure to use. But I would want to get the data (both looking at the literature overall and viewing internal records), on why 8 minutes versus 6 or 10.
Knowing how important the 8 minute target is may be critical to improvement strategies. The point of using a control chart, and many of the management improvement tools, are to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of resources spent improving. The trick is not really to improve (that is pretty easy) the trick is to improve quickly and effectively (and in a competitive marketplace to improve more quickly than competitors). Where improvement resources are targeted is critical. In deciding which improvement options to explore it is important to understand the impact on the outcome (in this case the health of the patient).
As stated in an earlier message, the real aim is improving the outcome for the patient. Assuming that outcomes decline as time increases. One way to do this is by finding and eliminating special causes (or adding them in case the special causes are beneficial).
I think the control chart would need to include all data not just 90%. The control chart is a measure of the performance of the process. The 90% within 8 minutes seems more
This message could benefit from more thought and editing on my part but I have to run so I will send it as it is and hope it is useful - even in this rough form.
John Hunter
www.johnhunter.com
This post is an edtied version of a message I sent to the Deming Electronic Network.
I find the “control charts in health care” thread quite interesting.
From Mike Woolbert's post
> I have read many comments about the 8 minute ambulance trip.
> This doesn't seem to be a system measure, but a result measure.
It seems to me the 8 minute (90% of the time) measure is an attempt at a process measure (in a sense, you can see it as a result measure, but it is also a measure that will have an impact on overall results and as such can be used a process indicator). For it to be a process measure rather than than a process target however, it should actual be a measure of what has happened not a statement that we want to have 90% arrive within 8 minutes.
Jonathan Siegel's comments on this topic were excellent.
The control chart was developed to aid in process improvement. A control chart helps monitor the process (to aid in putting in place counter-measures, when needed, and for identification of special causes). The control chart can be used to see if the process is in control and what the expected results from the system are.
The 90% in 8 minutes measure seems to me to be the desire or goal (as a proxy for a “customer specification” or “voice of the customer”). The control chart will show what the process is capable of: “voice of the process.” There could be another voice of the process that excludes the 10% longest times, but I don't think that would be a control chart, it would be something else. I think that is fine, as long as what it was, and is not, is understood. Maybe there is some way to have the 90% measures as a control chart that I just don't think of it right now.
Learning that the process is in control (using a control chart) can help guide the improvement efforts. When the process is in control certain process improvement strategies are likely to be effective. And PDSA pilots can be analyzed based on the knowledge that the system is in control. I think Brian Joiner's 4th Generation Management has very good information on this topic, see pages 140-153. Essentially, focus on improving the process as a whole, using PDSA and experimentation, rather than focusing on special causes. In addition, those pages talk about stratifying and disagragating the data to help focus improvement efforts.
If the system is not in control different improvement strategies are most likely to be effective. Again 4th Generation Management has good ideas pages 138-140. Essentially, in this case the type of management most often seen, find causes and react is often the best strategy. The long term strategy should be to bring the process into control and then improve the process.
Thinking about the ambulance response process I have the following thoughts.
It seems likely the 8 minute figure is based on experience such that the system outcomes (the health of the patient) will decline as times increase, which makes sense to me. And possibly the 8 minute figure is based on some studies that make that a sensible figure to use. But I would want to get the data (both looking at the literature overall and viewing internal records), on why 8 minutes versus 6 or 10.
Knowing how important the 8 minute target is may be critical to improvement strategies. The point of using a control chart, and many of the management improvement tools, are to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of resources spent improving. The trick is not really to improve (that is pretty easy) the trick is to improve quickly and effectively (and in a competitive marketplace to improve more quickly than competitors). Where improvement resources are targeted is critical. In deciding which improvement options to explore it is important to understand the impact on the outcome (in this case the health of the patient).
As stated in an earlier message, the real aim is improving the outcome for the patient. Assuming that outcomes decline as time increases. One way to do this is by finding and eliminating special causes (or adding them in case the special causes are beneficial).
I think the control chart would need to include all data not just 90%. The control chart is a measure of the performance of the process. The 90% within 8 minutes seems more
This message could benefit from more thought and editing on my part but I have to run so I will send it as it is and hope it is useful - even in this rough form.
John Hunter
www.johnhunter.com
Monday, February 21, 2005
Baby Names - Web Application
Topic: Internet
Cool site: Baby name wizard - name popularity java application
Great example of a traffic generating tool/content use to help market a product. The aplication allows visitors to view the popularity of names over time. The site provides a useful and interesting service for free and in turn get the oportunity to sell their product (a book on baby names - The Baby Name Wizard).
This is a great example of what the internet can do well - providing something of value to visitors and serving as a marketing vehicle for the organization. And by providing something interesting the site gets free publicity (such as this post).
Cool site: Baby name wizard - name popularity java application
Great example of a traffic generating tool/content use to help market a product. The aplication allows visitors to view the popularity of names over time. The site provides a useful and interesting service for free and in turn get the oportunity to sell their product (a book on baby names - The Baby Name Wizard).
This is a great example of what the internet can do well - providing something of value to visitors and serving as a marketing vehicle for the organization. And by providing something interesting the site gets free publicity (such as this post).
Tuesday, February 15, 2005
Private Consumer Information Stolen from ChoicePoint
Topics: Economics, Privacy, Government
According to an article on CNN.com, "tens of thousands of U.S. consumers face a greater risk of identity theft after criminals gained access to a database of personal records compiled by ChoicePoint Inc."
"In California, the only state that requires companies to disclose security breaches, ChoicePoint sent warning letters to 30,000 to 35,000 consumers advising them to check their credit reports."
"Chris Hoofnagle, associate director with the Electronic Privacy Information Center... This is a prime example of how they don't and why ChoicePoint should be subject to federal privacy regulations," He is completely right.
More information is detailed in the letter sent by EPIC to the Federal Trade Commission on 1 Feb 2005: Request for investigation into data broker products for compliance with the Fair Credit Reporting Act.
It is a shame the government is failing to serve their role, as regulator, as necessary in a properly functioning capitalist economy. At least California has taken the minimal step of requiring the companies to notify consumers when the companies discover they have made their private information available improperly. The failure to regulate in areas with negative economic externalities causes great damage to the economy and the individuals of the society. Unfortunately the government seems uninterested in these responsibilities. For that reason citizens are subject to negative externalities that they should not have to suffer. If government leaders properly played their role as regulator.
I don't like the idea that my private information is held by companies that continue to fail to properly protect that private information. Their right to maintain records of private information needs to be much more effectively regulated. And citizen's should be given much more control over the flow of their private information. I wonder how much money the politicians get from those who trade in private information? I imagine, the money recieved might provide a compelling explanation for the failure to regulate properly to those who are sceptical of the pure intentions of our "representatives."
Updated 17 Feb
Dan Gilmor has added a post on this topic - A Dossier on Your Life: Now Criminals May Have It. My comments on that post:
According to an article on CNN.com, "tens of thousands of U.S. consumers face a greater risk of identity theft after criminals gained access to a database of personal records compiled by ChoicePoint Inc."
"In California, the only state that requires companies to disclose security breaches, ChoicePoint sent warning letters to 30,000 to 35,000 consumers advising them to check their credit reports."
"Chris Hoofnagle, associate director with the Electronic Privacy Information Center... This is a prime example of how they don't and why ChoicePoint should be subject to federal privacy regulations," He is completely right.
More information is detailed in the letter sent by EPIC to the Federal Trade Commission on 1 Feb 2005: Request for investigation into data broker products for compliance with the Fair Credit Reporting Act.
It is a shame the government is failing to serve their role, as regulator, as necessary in a properly functioning capitalist economy. At least California has taken the minimal step of requiring the companies to notify consumers when the companies discover they have made their private information available improperly. The failure to regulate in areas with negative economic externalities causes great damage to the economy and the individuals of the society. Unfortunately the government seems uninterested in these responsibilities. For that reason citizens are subject to negative externalities that they should not have to suffer. If government leaders properly played their role as regulator.
I don't like the idea that my private information is held by companies that continue to fail to properly protect that private information. Their right to maintain records of private information needs to be much more effectively regulated. And citizen's should be given much more control over the flow of their private information. I wonder how much money the politicians get from those who trade in private information? I imagine, the money recieved might provide a compelling explanation for the failure to regulate properly to those who are sceptical of the pure intentions of our "representatives."
Updated 17 Feb
Dan Gilmor has added a post on this topic - A Dossier on Your Life: Now Criminals May Have It. My comments on that post:
Unfortunately many in the United States of American have come to equate no regulations with capitalism. Government has a critical role to play in regulating the market in capitalist theory. However, many political leaders don't understand the basic tenets of capitalism and fail to fulfil their vital role properly.
Monday, February 14, 2005
Management Improvemnet Articles
Topic: Management - Library Additions
Recent additions to the Curious Cat Management Improvement Library include:
- Six Sigma for the Little Guy by Mikel J. Harry and J. Douglas Crawford
- What are the Measures That Matter by Art Kleiner
- Critical Chain Scheduling and Buffer Management by Frank Patrick
- Theory of Constraints by Sid Sytsma
- Tom Peters Hates Quality but Loves Its Principles and Practices by John Pryor
Find links to these, and other new additions, on the Curious Cat Management Improvement New Articles Page or search for management improvement articles.
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