Sunday, October 09, 2005

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Rates

Topic: Economics and Investing

Fairly frequently I am asked, by friends, for investing advice. One topic I am asked about frequently is mortgages (locking in rates, etc.). Often they are concerned about what a Federal Reserve decision to raise or lower rates will effect the 30 year fixed mortgage rate. Essentially the decision by the Fed won't have any predictable impact (this is not the complete truth but close enough for the question being asked - this article has more, though it still just provides a cursory view of the situation).

The chart here, shows 30 year fixed mortgage rates from 2000-2005 versus the federal funds rate. I don't see any evidence that increases or decreases of the Fed Funds rate have a predictable impact on the 30 year fixed rate mortgage. For a larger chart and charts from 1980-1999 see 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates are Not Correlated with Federal Funds Rates.

I actually looked around for such charts online (to show a friend last week) but couldn't find any (I sure they must be there but still I couldn't find them). So I decided to create them myself. I used data from the Federal Reserve on historical rates. I was convinced the data would back up my belief but it is good idea to verify the data supports your beliefs (or learn that it doesn't so you can update your beliefs).

More investment info:



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Friday, October 07, 2005

More Lean Government

Topic: Management Improvement

Lean thinking ideas are about eliminating waste. Some who believe the government should just be smaller, talk about a lean government, but that is not the same thing as a government that applies the concepts of lean thinking.

Toyota is very lean and very large. Most business apply lean concepts with the goal of growing the size of their organization as they are better able to serve customers and compete in the marketplace.

The first Public Sector Shingo Prizes have been awarded by the Shingo Prize for Excellence in Manufacturing.

The gold recipient is Robins Air Force Base, Warner Robins Air Logistics Center:

C-5 began its Lean journey in 2001, and the successful Lean implementation has produced dramatic results in quality, cost, and delivery. Flow days have been reduced by 30%, while defects per aircraft dropped dramatically. In 2004 and 2005, C-5 PDM accomplished 100% on-time delivery, while increasing the number of aircraft produced.


Silver recipients are, Letterkenny Army Depot, Patriot Missile, Air Defense System:

The "Capability Based Depot" has tripled its workload in the last 3 years while returning $21.5 million to their customers. Letterkenny has employed lean concepts to obtain a 99% customer satisfaction rate, the highest on-time-delivery rate in the Army, and to reduce its accident rate by 50%.


Tinker Air Force Base, Oklahoma City Air Logistics Center:

the Tanker Division utilized an array of process improvement tools to facilitate improvements while increasing quality, efficiency and safety; thus enabling them to become the benchmark effort in lean implementation for Tinker Air Force Base. The results were dramatic: within four years, the average yearly flow time for a KC-135 PDM dropped 52%, the number of aircraft on station (WIP) decreased 49%, and capacity increased 75%.


Hill Air Force Base, Ogden Air Logistics Center, F-16 Common Configuration Implementation Program:

Since incorporating Lean tools and techniques into its process and establishing the U.S. Air Force's first organic cellular flow line in early 2004, CCIP has realized a 30% reduction in flow days, an 80% increase in defect-free aircraft, and a 50% reduction in WIP.


Hill Air Force Base, Ogden Air Logistics Center, Commodities Branch:

Utilizing lean process improvement tools, shop technicians have reduced the cycle time from 145 days to less than 18 days and decreased the production floor footprint by 33%, thereby increasing capacity to accept a new A-10 pylon workload into the existing parameters of the organization. Additionally, the team was able to eliminate all back orders, and is meeting production demands with an unprecedented 100% on-time delivery rate!

Related links:

Thursday, October 06, 2005

The Toyota Way Fieldbook

Topic: Management Improvement

The Toyota Way Fieldbook - a Practical Guide to implementing Toyota's 4Ps by Jeffrey Liker has just been released. For this book he is joined by David Meier, and they delve into applying the concepts from his excellent book: The Toyota Way. Toyota's 4Ps: Philosophy, Processes, People, and Partners.

"The Toyota Way Fieldbook details the language, concepts, and tools that managers need to use Toyota's success-proven practices in any organization. Readers are given valuable insights into the company's system and culture along with diagnostic tools, work sheets, and exercises--many adapted directly from Toyota originals."


Jeffrey Liker's web site
Lean Thinking articles

Wednesday, October 05, 2005

Deming Institute Conference

Topic: Management Improvement

For those who might be interested in meeting in person, I will be in Indiana for the Deming Institute Conference and the seminar, How to Create Unethical, Ineffective Organizations That Go Out of Business, this month.

Feel free to drop me a note if you want to try and meet. I look forward to seeing some of you.

Tuesday, October 04, 2005

Lean Government

Topic: Management Improvement

Making Government Work by Tom Vilsack via Panta Rei:

We redesigned the child welfare system to place greater focus on the complex and hard cases that people live out every day. We cut down paperwork so workers would have more time to spend helping children. That effort was part of our charter agency effort, which the Kennedy School at Harvard and the Ash Institute recently recognized as an Innovation of the Year award winner.

We committed ourselves to reconfiguring the way permitting and other processes worked in our government. By using Kaizen and other forward-thinking management techniques, we cut down the amount of time and staff used in the permitting process without sacrificing quality.

All of these efforts and results are outlined in our results website, at www.resultsiowa.org.

The Innovation Awards have long been a good source for learning about some of the good work done in government.

I am intrigued by what I see on the resultsiowa.org web site. I need to spend more time looking at it but at the very least they have put significant thought into their strategic priorities. That is important, and something rarely done well.

I was one of the founding board members on the ASQ Public Sector Network (now the ASQ Government Division). I also, created and have maintained the Public Sector Continuous Improvement web site for a decade. Some additional details on my background.

There have been many great efforts in the government, but still so much more needs to be done. Here are articles exploring what has been done:
Ok, so I am biased. My father, Bill Hunter, was a significant part of the success in Madison, Wisconsin. And I worked with Gerald Suarez at the White House Military Office (after the article above was written). Well it is my blog, so I get to include what I think is most worth including. There is a great deal of great work being done in government.

I was skeptical reading Governor Vilsack's statement:

I don't believe in platitudes. I believe in making sure that government works and fulfills its promises to our communities.

Who admits they believe in platitudes? Unfortunately many politicians say they want do improve the management of government, but few actually follow through on those statements. The web site indicates he may be serious. I am intrigued enough to spend some time seeing what they are up to in Iowa.

Monday, October 03, 2005

The Dramatic Spread of Lean Thinking

Topic: Management Improvement and Economics

The Dramatic Spread of Lean Thinking by Jim Womack:

Currently we are experiencing an explosion of interest in applying lean thinking to practically every process in every corner of the world. And it is causing all of us in the Lean Community to think about how we can best serve the needs we are hearing about.
...
I am delighted with the spread of lean thinking far beyond the factory and far beyond the high-wage economies to every corner of the world and to every value-creating activity. My greatest concern is that we bring the best methods to bear and create the maximum amount of knowledge exchange across the global Lean Community so these initiatives will all succeed. Life will be better for all of us if they do.

Life indeed will be better for all of us with the improvement of management. The benefits of economic success are large. Good jobs are desired everywhere: USA, India, Germany, Singapore... Those jobs provide positive externalities that create a reinforcing loop of improving conditions.

There are many important factors (education, investment, political stability, rule of law...) to economic success. Effective management is among the factors that can provide dramatic increases in the standard of living of a country or community. As Jim Womack states:

I'm always amazed that my friends in high-wage countries seem to think that workers in low-wage countries will be happy to continue forever making cheap products for first-world consumers at low wages. In fact, like all of us, they want to sell products to high-wage countries at steadily rising wages, so they can become high-wage countries too

I also find this trait odd. I think it is because those in high wage countries think living in a society with a large percentage of high wage jobs is their birthright. They do not seem to realize you can go back just to the grandparents of their friends and colleagues and find a society where most jobs were low wage jobs.

I think the prospects for economic success for several generations hence is good. But it will require a better performance as a society (management must improve, in addition to the health care system, education...). The mobility of capital, ideas and people means that if countries do not adopt highly successful methods they are in much greater danger of being outdone by others.

There is not only risk but also great opportunity. To take advantage of the opportunity, participants must have the ability to offer others something of value. I believe this opportunity is indeed great. My vision for myself is to assist those who want to improve management in order to participate in the opportunities that will be available to those who have value to offer the world.

However, there is a real risk for any country that fails to take the challenge seriously that they will be passed by. The United States of America has many advantages that give us a much easier path to success than others. However, those advantages are likely to shrink going forward and the importance of making the most of all opportunities (through ideas such as: lean thinking, Deming, systems thinking, effective use of data, innovation...) is increasingly important.

I realize this big picture view might seem a bit overly dramatic to some. The value of Deming's ideas, lean thinking, management improvement... are not dependent on this big picture view. However, it is a significant part of why I care about management improvement. Yes management improvement should help us be more successful at work. But effective management can indeed "advance commerce, prosperity and peace."

Saturday, October 01, 2005

Ford and Managing the Supplier Relationship

Topic: Management Improvement

There have a been a number of articles (Ford to slash vendors of key parts - Ford Rethinks Supply Strategy and posts (A "Kinder and Gentler" Lean Supply Base? - Ford Adopts Toyota-style Supplier Strategy) about supplier management, many springing from Ford's announcement.

My first thought on reading the stories about the press release was, didn't Ford already say they were going to do this in the 1980's or 1990's?

John Weiser, Spring 1997 Executive-in-Residence, Graduate School of Management:
When Ford Motor Company embraced the Deming initiative, Ford's president told his suppliers:

"We are in the process of making a major change when it comes to dealing with our supplying companies. My goal is that this will become a truly partnership effort, rather than the type of arm's length relationship that has all too often been the way we have worked in the past."


Here is a speech by the President of RadioShack Corporation, The Supply Chain of the Future: A Focus on the Customer:

The Ford supply chain had become ossified [1970's]. It was no longer agile, not to mention adaptable to competition or aligned with suppliers or customer demand.

The irony, of course, was that as Detroit became bloated and inefficient, competitors on the other side of the world were staying true to Ford's early lessons - Japanese automakers were Agile, Adaptable, and Aligned, and practiced a highly efficient form of kerietsu.
...
Interestingly, the Japanese learned kaizen from someone who Ford and others rejected - a man named Deming.

What Deming tried to re-introduce to Ford [in the 1980s] was a more modern and refined version of what had made Ford great.

Here's what I mean - During the early days, Ford and his associates were dissatisfied with the price that an auto body manufacturer was demanding.

They wanted him to get his price down, just as today's Big Three want their suppliers to reduce prices.

The difference was that Ford and his co-workers didn't just tell the supplier to cut his price.

They looked at the supplier's product and taught the supplier how to make it more efficiently.

The supplier's production costs dropped so far that the supplier could not only give Ford the price he wanted, but also make more money for himself.


Ford said they were committed to the Deming philosophy in the 1980's and 1990's. Donald Petersen, former CEO of Ford Motor Company, was one of those included in the Deming Library Tapes.

Point 4 (of Deming's 14 points): End the practice of awarding business on the basis of price tag alone. Instead, minimize total cost in the long run. Move toward a single supplier for any one item, on a long-term relationship of loyalty and trust.

Also see The Car Quality Guru America Turned Away.

Nothing has changed from 1990 to today that explains why Ford saying they are going to deal with suppliers differently now should work any better then such statements 15 years ago. Until they acknowledge what problems in their management system have caused them to fail to use sensible management practices that have been well know for decades I see no reason to believe there claims that they will behave differently this.

The difficulty is not in reducing the number of suppliers. The difficulty is that you must change the nature of your relationship with the suppliers. And that will require changing the nature of the management systems within Ford. The various factors involved are interdependent.

You cannot expect to achieve success by adopting an individual component of an interdependent system of management. In the 1980's Ford had leadership that understood the need for improving the entire system of management. They were able to make changes. It is possible that with the right leadership the gains made in the 1980s and early 1990s could be built upon. But the evidence that Ford understands what is required, is missing, in my opinion.

From, Ford Adopts Toyota-style Supplier Strategy:

On one of our Lean benchmarking trips to Japan everyone in our group was particularly impressed by the story told by a small Toyota supplier of elbow joints we visited. This company gave up and told Toyota "we can't meet your requirements" on cost only to have a Toyota engineer come and live at their company until together they were able to redesign both their product and process to meet cost targets. Toyota refused to let even a small supplier fail.


The mentality behind this type of behavior is not one of reducing suppliers but of a system of management. One interdependent portion of that system is the reduction of suppliers so you and the suppliers are truly partners. A different understanding of the purpose of the organization is helpful. You have obligations to your customers and suppliers.

While looking analytically at one of these obligations you may conclude you would be better off free from such an obligation the system is optimized when such interdependencies exist and are nourished.

Performance Without Appraisal

Topic: Management Improvement

In response to the Alternatives to Stack Ranking? post on the popular Mini-Microsoft blog.

I'm also taking some time to contemplate on Deming's points and assess how Microsoft is doing against them.
...
What I would deeply appreciate is real-world experience from people living with stack ranking alternatives.


I strongly suggest chapter 9 (Performance Without Appraisal) of The Leader's Handbooks, by Peter Scholtes. You mentioned Deming. When asked "If we eliminate performance appraisals, as you suggest, what do we do instead?" Dr. Deming's reply: Whatever Peter Scholtes says." (page 296).

Abolishing Performance Appraisals by Tom Coens and Mary Jenkins also provides great practical examples.

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Actually, I just noticed the previous post to the mini-microsoft blog pointed to us.

I keep looking at the books about how to grow beyond using industrial-era performance reviews (yes, anti-stack ranking books are out there). I don't think I'll be able to fit the books in so they'll have to wait until I get back. But I am printing out for reading later some various anti-stank ranking articles I found, especially this one over at Curious Cat:

* Total Quality or Performance Appraisal: Choose One by Peter Scholtes.


The comments on the mini-microsoft blog shows performance appraisal continues to be an emotional topic. People on opposite sides of the debate are very passionate.

I admit it took me longer to accept Dr. Deming's thoughts on performance appraisal than other ideas (and that is even with Peter Scholtes being a friend which gave me the opportunity to discuss the idea with him). So I understand it is not an easy concept to accept. Management Craft has also been focusing considerable energy on this topic recently.

This is the 100th post to the Curious Cat Management Improvement blog.

Previous Performance Without Appraisal post.